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When it began to show signs coming a crisis in my industry and had long since we had noticed.
People had no money to subterfuge and consumption habits were changing, earn the same but, instead, had to pay a monthly mortgage fortunón and parents often pay the bill, prices had risen against the Euro and wages remained, they had invented new spending without providing pocket more money, expenses whose benefits would end up abroad in the form of investment or payment of product. He could not borrow more because of how little of their income. The small industry is not dependent on the construction was paralyzing and every day was taking longer to sell a home. People expected the collapse of prices for shopping.
A good friend, financial advisor to a major (the more, to be exact), I said nothing would happen, that blood does not reach the River. I replied with a premonition: unemployment would reach between 24 and 25%, and GDP would drop from about 12 to 15%. Is Clearly, the calculation I did by eye, based more on experience and intuition than facts and figures about unknown to me.
Then my friend laughed out loud, I said the Spaniard had not reached the debt ratio of a German, a Frenchman, an Englishman ... however, a few months ago I asked on the subject.
The Spaniard means not much money to spare and the calculation of the potential borrowing should be based on savings. Bankers should know better than anyone else, at least I did. The rich European, after paying fixed expenses and food, it makes up far more money than half Spaniard on catalanito all that, that water, transport, infrastructure, education, housing ... more expensive, and lack of support for all, compared to any other Spaniard, nothing left to save.
Today I think the government will have done so badly. Unemployment will continue to grow but at a pace that will make it impossible to reach 25% and the GDP may reach down a little more, but I do not exceed 10 or 11%.
is clear that I had followed another policy, perhaps more radical and future. I'm tired of announcing in all forums and blogs that I know about it. What is certain is that with the current, not just domestic, we have crisis poverty while and will rule in our country. May not perceive it, perhaps think, when unemployment decreased and consumption rise, the bad dream is over. But no ... the success and failure should be measured by what might be and what we are, and the difference will órdago.
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